The Merseyside derby between Everton and Liverpool has always been one of the most explosive and fiercely contested fixtures in the Premier League calendar. Looking at recent form, Everton have shown a certain resilience in their performances at Goodison Park. Despite fluctuating overall results, the team often demonstrates strong physicality and tactical discipline when facing strong opponents at home, defending resolutely while seeking counter-attacking opportunities. In contrast, although Liverpool have maintained a very high possession rate and attacking efficiency across all competitions recently, the vulnerability of their defensive line to spaces left behind during high pressing remains evident. They occasionally struggle to break down compact defenses, showing signs of fatigue in front of goal. Historical head-to-head records indicate that while Liverpool have consistently held the upper hand in overall strength and league standings, the unique nature of the derby often narrows the gap between the two sides. When playing at home against Liverpool, Everton frequently manage to elevate their performance beyond what their squad quality suggests, fueled by the passionate support of their fans. This blurring of traditional strength disparity often leads data models to adjust their assessments based on home advantage and the "upset-prone" nature of historical meetings, resulting in a win probability distribution for this match that does not fully align with the teams' apparent strength indices. In terms of key players, Everton heavily rely on their forward's hold-up play and the set-piece threat generated by crosses from wide areas. Dominic Calvert-Lewin's physical presence will be crucial in testing Liverpool's center-back partnership. Regarding injuries, both teams have varying degrees of squad depletion. Liverpool's compromised midfield orchestration could diminish their control over the game's tempo, while Everton's counter-attacking efficiency would significantly improve if they can keep their central spine intact. Tactically, Liverpool's high pressing and rapid transitions are their core identity, whereas Everton prefer to disrupt the opponent's passing lanes through midfield battles and bypass the midfield with long balls. This clash between "fast-paced attack" and "disruption" will determine the flow of the match. Based on a comprehensive data analysis by the AI model, although Liverpool hold an absolute advantage in strength indices, considering the intensity of the derby, home advantage, and tactical counterplay, the model presents an aggressive prediction favoring a higher win probability for Everton. This outcome reflects the possibility that, under specific circumstances, the underdog can compensate for technical shortcomings through tactical targeting. It should be noted that this model prediction is primarily based on team strength and historical head-to-head data, and does not fully account for uncontrollable factors such as on-the-day player form fluctuations and tactical adjustments. Regarding the identification of value opportunities, since the odds market has not yet officially opened, it is impossible to calculate the difference between the bookmaker's implied probability and the AI-predicted win probability. The current analysis is entirely based on team strength indicators and accumulated historical data. Once subsequent odds data is released, if the bookmaker offers excessively high odds for an Everton win and the AI prediction indicates a significant undervaluation of their win probability, it could represent a potential value betting opportunity. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in the handicap market after the odds are published, in order to further assess the market's expectations of Liverpool's away performance.